Adani, at the end of the day, is a pawn caught in a geopolitical struggle between India, KSA, UAE, Israel etc on one hand and the Anglosphere on the other. Whatever is happening with it, is just the opening salvo. This economic battle will only intensify henceforth.
All talks of India being a strategic partner of the US is merely window dressing. What has happened, propelled much due to the Ukraine conflict, is a South Pole is being organised. Removed from either US or China. India is at the forefront along with UAE and KSA. France is watching keenly. Germany from the Wings. And where it hurts US most is the fact that the supremacy of its narrative building and adherence to its diktats is being surreptitiously challenged proactively.
Adani, ultimately, is just a shot across the bow. To remind India about how dependant it is on US systems. Rating agencies, FIIs, access to market etc. Thus fall in line. It will offer some consolation prizes if India does. IF it doesn’t then there will be more pain to bear. BUT, here is the US conundrum. It needs India in its corner when it takes on China or tries to unsettle China’s apple cart. Also, it needs India’s quietude to keep its narrative in place wrt various issues. From Ukraine to Taiwan to what have you. Pushing India beyond a point will be counter productive. IF India comes out openly in the Russian corner, not cos it is productive, but cos it is pushed to a corner, it will upend a number of US gameplans. How far will US go with India, UAE, KSA, Russia, China all grouped together? That too with an Indian presidency of G20.
Then there is the growing move towards dedollarization. It isn’t that India doesn’t have cards of its own to play.
US deep state has summoned Modi. Ostensibly to discuss strategic partnership, fete him, address the Senate etc. But that is for optics. It is more, I feel, towards ultimatums and edicts to fall in line. Big tickets such as F35, GE engines, Submarine deals will be put forward as carrots. The stick, though missing in public, will be very present. Adani will remain caught in this. How the talks between Modi and US deep state will go will be evident through how the pressure on Adani fares post that meeting. This meeting will be watched by all important quarters of the globe keenly.
How far, do you think, India will bend? Come out unscathed? The silver lining is, it sets up the factors for India to remain neutral to all poles. THAT could well be our greatest blessing in the future.
