No matter what the consequences of war might be, the sufferers will be the people of Europe. They will either fall prey to Russian or Ukrainian bullets or the arrogance of their leaders for whom they are mere pawns in the big game.
The war in Ukraine has stretched way too long for those involved. Russia, expecting a quick victory, is humbled by the Ukrainian defense. Russia has made territorial gains, which might have made the war worthwhile for them. The Ukrainians are fighting for their survival. They have to hang in there if they wish to remain free.
The people of Ukraine bear the direct consequences of the war. The war has also brought dire consequences for the people of central and western Europe. They remain away from the line of fire but suffer nonetheless.
What makes these people suffer when their armies do not fight Russia?Neither do they share borders with Ukraine.
Europe suffers due to the arrogance of its political leaders. They follow the self-righteous lead of the US, who has never waged an illegal war except in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Korea. It has also never toppled a democratically elected government except for Chile, Costa Rica, and the like.
Europe wanted to punish Russia, it punished its populace instead. The people must finally see the loophole in internationalism their leaders so loudly propounded.
“On July 26, 2022, the European Commission presented its ‘Save gas for a safe winter
Regulation to an extraordinary meeting of the European Council, outlining steps to avoid emergency energy curtailments in the event of further gas delivery disruptions from Russia.’’
The conditions of ‘Save gas for a safe winter’ will be mandatory in case of an ‘EU alert level’. This would mean a forced reduction in the supply of gas which would affect livelihoods and heating in the homes and offices. The reduction in the gas supply would mean trouble, the working class would not be able to provide for their families in the freezing cold of Europe.
Europeans are looking for other options for this voluntary energy usage reduction.
The idea of ‘energy curfews’ is being propagated. It would mean the early closing of businesses and offices, dimming street lights, and the like. It would also mean business shut downs and lower growth in the already troubled post-pandemic market. There is also an idea of rationing gas supplies to energy-intensive industries. This is what might happen-
“An unmitigated curtailment scenario could equate to as much as a 1.5% loss in GDP for the period in question, whereas a more proactive and managed approach could reduce this to 0.4%, according to the Commission’s modeling.”
“IMF estimates suggest that potential GDP loss from a total cut off of Russian gas ranges from 0 – 6.5% of GDP depending on the Member State – with Hungary the most exposed.”
The aggressive stand of NATO brought war to Europe. Their stubborn stand has started to affect their own people. The Germans who were at the forefront of the counter-offensive against Russia depend almost entirely on the Russians. One-sixth of German companies have reduced production or stopped their activities partially.
The energy prices are at a record high as the supply from Russia dwindles. Nord Stream 1 now functions at only 20% of the initial capacity. This has led to a record inflation rate of 9%. The people suffering are also losing their savings to the arrogance of their leaders. The reduction in production will lead to a loss of disposable income, which in turn affects consumption and ultimately growth and development. With the recession setting in the US, news from China isn’t particularly encouraging too. These are all considerations if Russia doesn’t stop its supply. It still accounts for 40% of the gas supply to Europe. If that happens, people are sure to suffer.
All the countries have different holding capacities, some would run out by December. Even Germany’s storage can last only 108 days if at 100% capacity. They are only 67% filled and consequently under the mercy of the Russians.
The people suffer from the short-sighted behaviour of their leaders. A moral upper hand is superior to the real-life suffering of the people for said leaders.They have brought the consequences of a war to their own people, consequences which the leaders themselves will not suffer from.
No matter what the consequences of war might be, the sufferers will be the people of Europe. They will either fall prey to Russian or Ukrainian bullets or the arrogance of their leaders for whom they are mere pawns in the big game.
